حاجات اتعلمتها فى الغربة 2

انا كنت كتبتلوا من فتره عن الحاجات اللى اتعلتها فى الغربة وكنت بصراحة بكتب و مش متوقعه ان فيه حد يقرا اللى كتبتبه اصلا, لقيت انه اتقرا كتير و الناس اتخيلت اني كمان كاتبة و مشهورة مع ان دي كانت اول مره اكتب فيها حقيقي

المهم انا عجبنى الموضوع لاني حسيت اني ممكن افيد بصورة من الصور و عشان كدا بكتب ده دلوقتي

من ضمن الحاجات اللى بتديك قوه رهيبة وانتا فى الغرية هيا حاجة اسمها معية ربنا ليك. يعنى ايه الكلام ده…..

انا بتكلم والله انى معرفتش معنى الجملة دي فى اللغة العربية ولكن عرفتها بقلبى من سنين وكل يوم بشوف حاجات و بنعيش مواقف جديدة من تدوير على شغل لتدوير على شقة ايجار اخري او اننا نسجل عربيتنا فى شركة تأمين , انتوا مش عارفين يعنى ايه ربنا يكون بيختارلك كل حاجه فى حياتك وتطلع هي فعلا احسن حاجة بعد ما يعملوا عليها دراسات وابحاث و يطلع ده هوا فعلا معنى معية ربنا ليك.

يعنى اكنك موكل ناس مختلفة و لله المثل الاعلى و كل واحد من الناس دي بيفهم فى حاجات مختلفة و ممكن تستشيره فهيا عشان يشير عليك تعمل ايه وتختار ايه عشان يكون احسن حاجة ليك لانه متخصص فى الحاجة دي… هوا ده اللى اقصده انتا تقول يا رب انت معايا و انا متوكل عليك وده فى الغربة ملجأ ليك فعلا لانك فعليا وحرفيا بتكون لوحدك وملكش حد تروحلة يساندك او يديلك غير ان بردة ربنا يوقفلك حد.

وتبتدي رحلتك فى التوكل على الله كل ما تمشي شوية فى حياتك وترجع تبص ورا وتقيم اللى انتا عملتواو عشته تلاقى ان ده كان احسن حاجة ليك و احسن طريقة توصل بيه للى انتا فيه دلوقت. حتي لو كنت مريت بحاجات تعبتك بس معية رينا محوطاك طول الوقت و انا هكتبلكوا مثل يعني. انا اول ما وصلت المانيا كنت مبعرفش اتكلم كلمة واحدة المانى او اتنين عشان الحق و هما

Entschuldigung und Danke

يعني اسف وشكرا. وبعد شهر اضيته فى البيت ابتديت كورس الالماني ودعيت ربنا انوا يوفقنى فى تعلم اللغة دي والحمد لله بعد 3 شهور كنت بتكلم كويس و بقيت اقدر ادور على شغل و فعلا لقيت شغل تحت التدريب فى صيدلية والمديرة فى الصيدلية دي كانت من نوعية الالمان اللى بتسمع عن حبهم الخرافى للعرب 🙂

لدرجة انها كل يوم تقريبا تخترع موضوع جديد عشان تخللى صاحبة الصيدلية ,لان صاحبة الصيدلية كانت فعلا بتحبنى , وبتحترمني, تتخانق معايا عشان امشي من الصيدلية دي. انا شغلي فى الصيدلية دي فى الوقت ده كان شبة عذابو اللحظة الحلوه كانت لما مديرة الصيدلية دي تاخد اجازه و تطير بعيد عني. و الغريب ان نفس المديره دي لما انا اخدت اجازه رعاية طفل ورجعت بعد شهور قامت وحضنتنى اول ما جيت و مفيش حد الماني ممكن يعمل كدا او يحضنك اصلا, قمة المشاعر حقيقي, يعنى المديرة كانت جواها

deep deep inside

بتحبنى بس الموضوع كان تنافس خوفا على مكانها. المهم بعد ما عقدي خلص ومشيت من الصيدلية و خلصت المعادلة بتاعتى وبدأت اشتعل فى صيدليات تانية كتير, تقريبا كل سن كنت كنت بشتغل فى صييدلية مختلفة. اكتشفت ان المرحلة دي فى حياتى كانت اهم محطة و كنت لازم اعدي عليها عشان اتعلم اللغة كويس جدا لان مديرة الصيدلية مكنتش بتخلينى اقف لوحدي و بتخلينى اقف مع واحده تانية عشان توصلى احساس انى غير مؤهله, كان ده بصراحة اهم حجر اساس اتعلمت منه اللغة كويس بالاكسنت المظبوطة و ثقتي فى نفسي زادت جدا مع ان المديرة كان هدفها انا تهد ثقتى بنفسي من الاصل. وكمان اتعلمت صيدلة كويس جدا لان اللى كنب بقف معاها على وش الخروج للمعاش و كانت خبرتها طويلة جدا و مش واحده بس كنب بقف مع اكتر ناس عندهم خبره فى الصيدلية فجمعت خبراتهم كلها.. فكان اللى عملته المديرة اللى كانت فاكراه ضرر ليا هيا اكتر حاجة نفعتني بيها عشان انجح فى المعادلة و اكون متفوقة لغويا و علميا

هوا ده اللى اقصدة بالظبط بالمعية الالهيه معاك ان الحاجة اللى قدامك فاكر انه بيضرك بيها بتكون اكتر حاجة بتنفعك وده عشان بتقول انى توكلت عليكي يا رب. عايز اقولكوا اني ساعتها مكنتش بحمد ربنا على وجودي فى الصيدلية دي زي مانا بحمد ربنا دلوقتي لاني دلوقتي بصيت ورايا وشوفت اد الصيدلية دي كان فيها نظام و الناس اللى كانت شغالة فيها كان عندها خبره كبيرة جدا فى وصف الدواء..

ده موقف واحد فى حياتي من مواقف كتير كلها بتأكد معنى عناية ربنا لما تكون معاك

اهم 8 خبرات اتعلمتهم فى الغٌربة

اسافر بلد عربى ولا اجنبي

لو عايز تغير البلد اللى انتا عايش فيه وتسافر عشان تعيش فى مكان افضل و تعليم وصحة افضل فالبلاد العربية هتلاقى فيها ثقافات متشابهه ومفيهاش تغيير نفسى كبير زي اللى هتقابلة فى البلاد الاجنبية. فلو عندك فرصة حلوه فى البلاد العربية سافر لانك مش بتختار مكان لنفسك بس او فرصة شغل افضل وخلاص, انا بتختار مكان لاسرتك كلها, افضل طريق انك تدرس فى دول اوروبية وبعدها تسافر بلاد عربية

النقد

طالما فيه نقد يعنى فيه نجاح, واوعى تخلى رأي الناس فيك هو مقياس نجاحك من عدمه لا فى ناس كتير نجاحك بيستفزهم وبيوريهم قد ايه هما قليلين وبتهز صورتهم قدام نفسهم وكل ما تبقى افضل كل ما يكرهوك وينتقدوك اكثر. هيكون رد فعلهم الطبيعى انهم مش بس ينتقدوك لا دول يهاجموك عشان يحاولوا يشوفوا قوتهم فى ضعفك. فالاحوال دى لازم تكون عارف من جواك انك مصدر ازعاج لنفسيات مريضة كتير فترك الكلاب تنبح و سر قدما للامام

حل المشاكل

اى مشكلة هتقابلها فى الدنيا او ممكن تظهر فكر فيها تفكير منطقى و هتلاقى حل تقدر تعملة وتوكل على الله بعدها متفكرش تانى بعدها واشغل نفسك بحاجة حلوه لانه طالما علمت اللى عليك فعلا بما يرض الله ومظلمتش حد ولا عايز تظلم وفكرت فى حل يرضى ربنا ويريح قلبك يبقى اى حاجة بعد كدا هتكون افكار من الشيطان بيحاول يشوش بيها على قلبك

مين اللى بينتقدك عشان بيحبك

اللى تعرف انه بيحبك لو عايز ينتقدك بييجى يقولك انت بس الموقف الفلانى لو كنت عملت كذا وكذا او اتصرفت بالطريقة الفلانية, او كان تصرفك هيبقى احسن كتير وده اسمه نقد بناء. ده شخص عايز مصلحتك وبيكلمك كلام موضوعى وبيقدملك الحل وفعلا بيحب نجاحك او بيحبك شخصيا. ولكن اللى بيكلمك بصوره عامة من غير ما يقول مواقف وبينتقد شخصك وخلاص ده تنفصل عنه تماما وتضحك وتبتسم وتقول شكرا كتير لذوقك وشياكتك والاحسن انك تبعد عنه خالص احسنلك

اراده البشر

لو كل الناس اللى فى الدنيا عازولك حاجة وربنا رايدلك حاجة تانية حلوه حتى لو الناس اللى يتتأمر عليك وعايزنلك حاجة وحشة شكلهم المتحكمين ظاهريا فى الموضوع و لاحد يقدر يعملك حاجة نهائى لان ربنا مردش. مافيش حد من البشر حتى نهاية الخليقة يقدر يقف قدام مراد الله ومشيئته فسبحانه فوق كل ملك وكل متحكم يوريهم اللى فاكرين انهم اقويا اد ايه هما ضعفاء ويوري الضعفاء اد ايه هو قوي لما يكون متولى عباده ومعينهم. اطمئن اذا كنت مع الملك

قدراتك

عمرك ما هتعرف قدراتك ايه غير لما تجربو لو العالم كله معرفش يعمل حاجة معينه متقولش طيب ماهى كل الناس معرفتش, . عادي جدا انتا تقدر والتجربة فعلا هي خير دليل, المثل المبتذل اللى كلنا حافظينه لكن عمره مابييجى على بالنا ولا بنفذه جرب وشوف طالما الحاجة دى مفيدة متغضبش ربنا وعاقبتها حلوه عليك وعلى الناس و ممكن على البشر كلهم يبقى ممكن تنجح . لو كل واحد اخترع حاجة فى الدنيا قال اه ما هو لو كان حد قبلى عملها كنت عملتها, ساعتها مكنش فى حد اخترع حاجة جديده

رضا ربنا

لو فى اى حاجة هتعملها هتبعدك عن رضا ربنا يبقى احسن متعملهاش حتى لو انت فاكر ان فيها سعادة, لان فعليا مافيش سعادة او نعمة فى ترك حب اللى بيحبك حقيقى وبتنده عليه يوم ما تضيق بيك وتتزلله قلبك وتقولوا مالى رب سواك

الدنيا ومشاغلها

الدنيا ومشاغلها مبتخلصش ومافيش حاجة بتلهى وتبعد الانسان عن سلام قلبه وراحته زى مخالطة الناس كل يوم والمواضيع الكتير والتلصص وعشان كدا لازم تاخد وقت تفصل عن الناس تماما عشان قلبك وراحة بالك والحنيه والود مع ربنا مينتهيش والا هتكون انتا فى طريق وقلبك وعقلك فى طريق تانى

2021

Sincere and heartful new year greetings to the M&S Research Hub team and trainees. Without the contribution, effort, and time of every member of the team, we could not endure and succeed. Without their belief in our vision of “bridging knowledge” and our department mission of “providing top notch live – human interactive- support and training for applied statistics” nothing of the realized success would be possible. We thank every trainee, student, and researcher who trusted our brand and had the confidence that our team will offer the best guidance, support, and training that significantly matters for his/her research and career plans. In 2020 we have

*trained over 1300 researchers at our different training, events, workshops, and webinars (40% more enrollment than the previous year)

*developed and currently contributing to 3 research projects.

* wrote more than 15 useful econometric-related posts on the MSR economics perspective (27% more contribution than the previous year).

* offered 4 fee-waiver scholarships for different training programs.

* launched our institute’s MSR working paper series and the study support service (Our educational counselors currently work with 6 students who plan to start their degree in Germany this year)

Here we are entering 2021 and wish this year to carry for every one success, blessing, happiness, and joy.

Why we have changed our logo for a month

Big brands have changed their logos to rainbow flags in support of gay and minority rights for a whole month. With the public projections of Hebdo caricatures of the Islam prophet Mohamed on a local government building, while heavily armed police officers stood guard. We – the international and multireligious team of M&S Research Hub – stand against anything that can hurt the convictions of someone else, in particular religious convictions. Accordingly and for a whole month, our logo will change and include the name of the prophet Mohamed in Arabic letters.

we actually took this stand in support for freedom of speech by any mean and any message, yet it is not a license to abuse or humiliates other believes rather it is a responsibility message. We would actually take this stand if the projected drawings were mocking of Jesus or Budha.

When I mock you in front of people in a humiliating way, you would not think of it as my freedom of speech, rather it is an issue of my manners and attitude, instead, it would be better to say what I think, in the right time and the right way, otherwise, the point of my message would be completely twisted because of the wrong attitude. Eventually and briefly, hate speech is never and has never been a freedom of speech, when a speech or message cost people lives, create tensions and societal isolations and divisions, then it is simply wrong. 

YEAR 2019

In our first YEAR “2019”, we had

**Over 120,000 visits to our institute website

**Over 50 completed interactive econometrics private and group training

**Around 70 researchers, 10 of them successfully completed their Ph.D. degrees, have booked our methodological and statistical guidance services

** 1 annual conference, and around 5 onsite and online workshops

** 5 online webinars

** 6 research ambassadors around the World and 10 esteemed academic council members

** New developed division “Program Design and Impact evaluation” that is managed and operated by two world first-class senior consultants.

— > Nothing could have happened without your support, trust, and faith in our mission

Stay tuned for 2020 new calendar of events and training programs.

Spurious Regression With Stationary Time Series

The spurious relationship is said to have occurred if the statistical summaries are indicating that two variables are related to each other when in fact there is no theoretical relationship between two variables. It often happens in time series data and there are many well-known examples of spurious correlation in time series data as well. For example, Yule (1926) observed strong relationship between marriages in church and the mortality rate in UK data. Obviously, it is very hard to explain that how the marriages in church can possibly effect the mortality, but the statistics says one variable has very strong correlation with other. This is typical example of spurious regression. Yule (1926) thought that this happens due to missing third variable.

This term spurious correlation was invented on or before 1897 i.e. in less than 15 years after invention of regression analysis. In 1897, Karl Pearson wrote a paper entitled, ‘Mathematical Contributions to the Theory of Evolution: On a Form of Spurious Correlation Which May Arise When Indices Are Used in the Measurement of Organs’. The title indicates the terms spurious regression was known at least as early as 1897, and it was observed in the data related to measurement of organs. The reason for this spurious correlation was use of indices. In next 20 years, many reasons for spurious correlation were unveiled with the most popular being missing third variable. This means if X is a cause of Y and X is also a cause of Z, but Y and Z are not directly associated. If you regress Y on Z, you will find spurious regression.

In 1974, Granger and Newbold (Granger won noble prize later) found that two non-stationary series may also yield spurious results even if there is no missing variable. This finding only added another reason to the possible reasons of spurious regression. Neither this finding can be used to argue that the non-stationarity is one and only reason of spurious regression nor this can be used to argue that the spurious regression is time series phenomenon. However, unfortunately, the economists adapted the two misperception. First, they thought that spurious regression is time series phenomenon and secondly, although not explicitly stated, it appears that the economists assume that the non-stationarity is the only cause of spurious regression. Therefore, although not explicitly stated, most of books and articles discussing the spurious regression, discuss the phenomenon in the context of non-stationary time series.

Granger and his coauthors in 1998 wrote a paper entitled “Spurious regressions with stationary series”, in which they show that spurious regression can occur in the stationary data. Therefore, they clear one of the common misconception that the spurious regression is only due to non-stationarity, but they were themselves caught in the second misconception that the spurious regression is time series phenomenon. They define spurious regression as “A spurious regression occurs when a pair of independent series but with strong temporal properties, are found apparently to be related according to standard inference in an OLS regression”. The use of term temporal properties implies that they assume the spurious regression to be time series related phenomenon. But a 100 years ago, Pearson has shown the spurious regression a cross-sectional data.

The unit root and cointegration analysis were developed to cope with the problem of spurious regression. The literature argues that spurious regression can be avoided if there is cointegration. But unfortunately, cointegration can be defined only for non-stationary data. What is the way to avoid spurious regression if the underlying are stationary? The literature is silent to answer this question.

Pesaran et al (1998) developed a new technique ‘ARDL Bound Test’ to test the existence of level relationship between variables. People often confuse the level relationship with cointegration and the common term used for ARDL Bound test is ARDL cointegration, but the in reality, this does not necessarily imply cointegration. The findings of Bound test are more general and imply cointegration only under certain conditions. The ARDL is capable of testing long run relationship between pair of stationary time series as well as between pair of non-stationary time series. However, the long run relationship between stationary time series cannot be termed as cointegration because by definition cointegration is the long run relationship between stationary time series.

In fact, ARDL bound test is a better way to deal with the spurious regression in stationary time series, but several misunderstandings about the test has restricted the usefulness of the test. We will discuss the use and features of ARDL in a future blog. 

Can cointegration analysis solve spurious regression problem?

The efforts to avoid the existence of spurious regression has led to the development of modern time series analysis (see How Modern Time Series Analysis Emerged? ). The core objective of unit root and cointegration procedures is to differentiate between genuine and spurious regression. However, despite the huge literature, the unit root and cointegration analysis are unable to solve spurious regression problem. The reason lies mainly in the misunderstanding of the term spurious regression.

Spurious correlation/spurious correlation occur when a pair of variable having no (weak) causal connection appears to have significant (strong) correlation/regression. In these meanings the term spurious correlation/spurious has the same history as the term regression itself. The correlation and regression analysis were invented by Sir Francis Galton in around 1888 and in 1897, Karl Pearson wrote a paper with the following title, ‘Mathematical Contributions to the Theory of Evolution: On a Form of Spurious Correlation Which May Arise When Indices Are Used in the Measurement of Organs’ (Pearson, 1897).

This title indicates number of important things about the term spurious correlation: (a) the term spurious correlation was known as early as 1897, that is, in less than 10 years after the invention of correlation analysis (ii) there were more than one types of spurious correlation known to the scientists of that time, therefore, the author used the phrase ‘On a Farm of Spurious Regression’, (c) the spurious correlation was observed in measurement of organs, a cross-sectional data (d) the reason of spurious correlation was use of indices, not the non-stationarity.

One can find in classical econometric literature that that many kinds of spurious correlations were known to experts in first two decades of twentieth century. These kinds of spurious correlations include spurious correlation due to use of indices (Pearson, 1897), spurious correlation due to variations in magnitude of population (Yule, 1910), spurious correlation due to mixing of heterogeneous records (Brown et al, 1914), etc. The most important reason, as the econometricians of that time understand, was the missing third variable (Yule, 1926).

Granger and Newbold (1974) performed a simulation study in which they generated two independent random walk time series x(t)=x(t-1)+e(t) and y(t)=y(t-1)+u(t) . The two series are non-stationary and the correlation of error terms in the two series is zero so that the two series are totally independent of each other. The two variables don’t have any common missing factor to which the movement of the two series can be attributed. Now the regression of the type y(t)=a+bx(t)+e(t) should give insignificant regression coefficient, but the simulation showed very high probability of getting significant coefficient. Therefore, Granger and Newbold concluded that spurious regression occurs due to non-stationarity.

Three points are worth considering regarding the study of Granger and Newbold. First, the above cited literature clearly indicates that the spurious correlation does exist in cross-sectional data and the Granger-Newbold experiment is not capable to explain cross-sectional spurious correlation. Second, the existing understanding of the spurious correlation was that it happens due to missing variables and the experiment adds another reason for the phenomenon which cannot deny the existing understanding. Third, the experiment shows that non-stationarity is one of the reasons of spurious regression. It does not prove that non-stationarity  is ‘the only’ reason of spurious regression.

However, unfortunately, the econometric literature that emerged after Granger and Newbold, adapted the misconception. Now, many textbooks discuss the spurious regression only in the context of non-stationarity, which leads to the misconception that the spurious regression is a non-stationarity related phenomenon. Similarly, the discussion of missing variable as a reason of spurious regression is usually not present in the recent textbooks and other academic literature.

To show that spurious regression is not necessarily a time series phenomenon, consider the following example:

A researcher is interested in knowing the relationship between shoe size and mathematical ability level of school students. He goes to a high school and takes a random sample of the students present in the school. He takes readings on shoe size and ability to solve the mathematical problems of the selected students. He finds that there is very high correlation between two variables. Would this be sufficient to argue that the admission policy of the school should be based on the measurement of shoe size? Otherwise, what accounts for this high correlation?

If sample is selected from a high school having kids in different classes, the same observation is almost sure to occur. The pupil in higher classes have larger shoe size and have higher mathematical skills, whereas student in lower classes have lower mathematical skills. Therefore, high correlation is expected. However, if we take data of only one class, say grade III, we will not see such high correlation. Since theoretically, there should be no correlation between shoe size and mathematical skills, this apparently high correlation may be regarded as spurious correlation/regression. The reason for this spurious correlation is mixing of missing age factor which drives both shoe size and mathematical skills.

Since this is not a time series data, there is no question of the existence of non-stationarity, but the spurious correlation exists. This shows that spurious correlation is no necessarily a time series phenomenon. The unit root and cointegration would be just incapable to solve this problem.

Similarly, it can be shown that the unit root and cointegration analysis can fail to work even with time series data, and this will be discussed in our next blog