Some of the most popular models used in Data Analysis imply the use of the so-called “Black Box” approach. Regarding the simplest interpretation one can give in this context, it depends on the inputs and outputs that a certain model can deliver in terms of prediction power. If econometrics is thought to estimate population parameters, […]
The black box and econometrics. Read More »
Pakistan continues to face numerous natural and manmade disasters, including catastrophic floods, earthquakes, droughts, war, and conflicts. The catastrophic wars in 1948, 1965 and 1999, the drought in 2013-15 to floods of 2010 affected almost 20 million people. Likewise, from 2007 onwards, the war on terrorism killed 52,000 civilians and erupted large-scale migration of around
The Covid19 Pandemic and Food (In) Security in Pakistan Read More »
With over 209 million populations, human capital is an indispensable asset for Pakistan. Besides increasing population, the country is experiencing a youth bulge, with the number of individuals entering the labor market over the upcoming years expanding at a faster rate than the total population. Hence creating enough jobs for a growing population, improve the
Human Resource Development in Pakistan—an obsessive quest? Read More »
Pandemic covid-19 was a global disaster and every nation was affected with different levels of intensity. Many huge industries such as the aviation and tourism industry faced huge losses. In such circumstances, it was not possible to provide a huge covid support package using the tax revenue. Despite this, many governments including those running deficit
Central Bank Borrowing and Inflation: between Myth and Reality Read More »
The mainstream monetary economics is filled with contradictions, logical inconsistencies, missed and messed normative implications and data inconsistencies. There exist heterodox theories having better match with historical data, but the theories are often undermined and ignored. It is in fact difficult to find something logical and valid in classical monetary economics. Despite a clear empirical
Mainstream Monetary Economics: A Package of Logical Fallacies Read More »
Whether if we’re working with Time Series Data or Panel Data, most of the times we want to follow the analysis of the long-run behavior and the short-run dynamics. An interesting but well-known model that enable us for such approach is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model which stands as ARDL. There are a lot of
Estimating long-run coefficients from an ARDL model Read More »
In my the previous blogs, [1] [2] I have explained that following the General Specific Methodology, one can choose between theoretical models to find out a model which is compatible with data. Here is an example which shows step by step procedure of the general to simple methodology. At the end of this blog, you
General to Specific Modeling; a Step by Step Guide Read More »
Listening to the word ARDL, the first things that comes into mind is the bound testing approach introduced by Pesaran and Shin (1999).The Pesaran and Shin’s approach is an incredible use of the ARDL, however, the term ARDL is much elder, and the ARDL model has many other uses as well. In fact, the equation
ARDL model and General to simple methodology Read More »
